How I calculated the period we will consider in the next article on time series.

Triple smoothing includes another How I calculated the  component – seasonality. And uses another equation. In this case. Two variants of the seasonal component are distinguished – additive and multiplicative. In the germany phone number list  first case. The amplitude of the seasonal component is constant and does not depend on the base amplitude of the series over time. In the second case. The amplitude changes along with the change in the base amplitude of the series. This is exactly our case. As can be seen from the graph. As the series grows. The amplitude of seasonal fluctuations increases. 

Seasonality parameters of time series

Since our first series has both a trend and seasonality. I decided to select triple smoothing parameters for it. This is quite easy to do. Because when updating the parameter value. The platform how to get start with seo  immediately redraws the smoothed series chart. And you can immediately see visually how well it describes our original series. I settled on the following values:

Usually. Values between 0.2 and 0 can be considered as first approximations. Also uses a model with an additional parameter ɸ. Which dampens the trend so that it approaches a constant in the future. For ɸ. I took the value 1. Which corresponds to the usual model. 

I also made a forecast of the series values using this method for the last 2 years. In the figure below. I marked the forecast start point. By drawing a line through it. As you can see. The original series and the smoothed one coincide quite well. Including over the forecast period – not bad for such a simple method!

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